The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted significant successes of the Ukrainian forces on the front in its latest analytical report. According to analysts, in the second half of February 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces were able to free more territory than was lost for the first time since the summer counteroffensive of 2023. This indicates a shift in the balance of power in certain areas of the confrontation.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Achievements of the Ukrainian Forces in February 2026
According to ISW estimates, since January 1, 2026, approximately 257 square kilometers of territory have come under Ukrainian control. Only during the period from February 14 to 20, the Ukrainian forces achieved a net gain of nearly 33 square kilometers, and from February 21 to 27, another approximately 57 square kilometers.
“The last time the Ukrainian forces achieved a net gain was during the summer counteroffensive of 2023, when the Ukrainian forces captured 377 square kilometers in June 2023, 257 square kilometers in July 2023, and 1.47 square kilometers in September 2023,” the report states.
ISW notes that their mapping methodology includes maximum estimates of Russian advances until sufficient open evidence is obtained to confirm the loss of control by Russian forces over specific areas.
Challenges and Assessments of the Frontline Situation
Analysts explain that the current frontline in Ukraine is “porous” due to the lack of continuous combat engagement along its length, making objective assessments of territorial control difficult. Despite this, ISW emphasizes that Ukraine’s achievements in February 2026 are of significant strategic importance, even if they differ from official statements by the Ukrainian authorities.
The report highlights that while recent local Ukrainian counterattacks are unlikely to escalate into a large-scale counteroffensive, these successes have prevented Russia from creating favorable conditions for a large-scale offensive in the spring or summer of 2026. Analysts believe that Russian forces will be forced to concentrate their efforts on stabilizing their defenses and preparing to attempt to regain lost positions.
ISW also emphasizes that the Russian military command continues to set unrealistic timelines for achieving its goals, which do not correspond to the actual capabilities of the Russian army on the battlefield. In particular, repeated statements about plans to capture the entire Donetsk region have remained unfulfilled, despite significant losses and resources expended over the past four years.
It is worth noting that President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a conversation with the Italian publication Corriere Della Sera, reported the liberation of 460 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of this year. This figure likely encompasses successes in the Oleksandrivka direction. According to the DeepState project, as of early March, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back near the settlements of Zlahoda, Novohryhorivka, Novomykolaivka, Stepne, and Ternove on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.