The temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil imposed by the United States is a negative step, but its impact on Russia’s economy will remain limited. This opinion was expressed by Vladislav Vlasuk, the President of Ukraine’s Commissioner for Sanctions Policy.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Assessment of Sanctions Impact on Russia’s Budget
According to Vlasuk, revenues from oil and gas exports remain a key source of funding for the Russian budget, and increased sanctions pressure contributes to the advancement of peace negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky previously estimated potential revenues for Russia from the easing of restrictions at up to 10 billion dollars. This refers to the approximate value of oil on 160 tankers that were loaded at the time of the change in the sanctions regime.
Vlasuk also emphasized that the impact of this decision on Russia’s economy should not be overestimated, as the country’s budget remains under significant pressure. He pointed to serious structural problems and a rapidly growing deficit, while revenues from energy resources are declining.
“The Russian budget is already under significant pressure: the first months of the year have been challenging, revenues from energy resources are decreasing, and the budget deficit is growing rapidly. Therefore, the temporary easing is unpleasant but not critical. The main thing is that the situation does not drag on,” he stressed.
Reaction of the International Community and Reasons for the US Decision
Vlasuk emphasized that Ukraine understands the technical motives behind Washington’s decision related to the logistics of already loaded oil and the strain on energy markets due to conflicts in the Middle East. In his opinion, a more effective way to stabilize the oil market would be to return barrels lost due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Iranian drones.
The President’s Commissioner also noted that Ukraine is in constant dialogue with the US and other partners regarding sanctions policy and calls for maintaining pressure on Russia. He hopes that most Western countries will remain firm in their positions regarding restrictions on Russian oil.
On March 12, the administration of US President Donald Trump granted a special license allowing countries to temporarily import certain Russian oil products that were at sea as of that date. The permit applies only to crude oil or products loaded onto vessels before March 12 and is valid until April 11.
This decision was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel due to attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf and the closure of key terminals. European Council President António Costa expressed concern about the implications of such a decision for Europe’s security. Ukrainian diplomats note that easing sanctions will not stabilize the market but will only help Russia continue the war, particularly in light of Russia’s cooperation with the Iranian regime in the Middle East.
The European Commission urged the US to adhere to restrictions on oil imports from Russia. Moscow, on the other hand, perceived the easing of sanctions as an attempt to stabilize the market. Amid the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran since late February, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, significantly impacting global oil supplies.