The escalation of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, caused by Iran’s actions, is provoking significant fluctuations in global oil prices. According to estimates by American analysts, if the trend of rising prices continues, it could compensate for Russia’s losses in oil revenues over the year.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Impact of Iranian Actions on the Oil Market
According to expert assessments, the recent spike in Brent crude oil prices has been particularly noticeable: on March 2, the price per barrel reached $82.37, while just on February 27, it was $73. The peak was recorded following American-Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities. At the time of preparing the analytical report, futures prices remained around $78 per barrel.
Significant influence on the situation came from reports of Iranian strikes on oil tankers associated with the US and the UK, as well as threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, shipping volumes in the Persian Gulf decreased by at least 33% as of March 1.
Prospects for Russia’s Oil Revenues
Analysts note that the situation in the Middle East could potentially contribute to rising oil prices in the coming days, with some forecasts predicting prices could reach $90–100 per barrel. Russia, which traditionally finances its war against Ukraine through oil and gas revenues, faced a decline in energy income in 2025. Russian authorities expect further declines in these revenues in 2026, prompting Moscow to seek additional funding sources—from selling gold reserves to increasing VAT.
According to recent data, Russia plans to increase oil production following the easing of OPEC+ restrictions—starting March 1, an allowable increase of three percent will enable production to rise to 10.9 million barrels per day during the current year. In 2025, this figure was 9.1 million barrels per day, and such a reduction was caused, in part, by strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
“Sustained high oil prices could keep Russia afloat economically and allow it to finance its war in Ukraine in the medium term. However, it is unlikely that Iran can implement a successful and unrestricted blockade of the Strait of Hormuz long enough for Russia to gain long-term benefits from the current rise in oil prices,” the report’s authors conclude.
On March 1, eight OPEC member countries and states coordinating policy with the organization decided to increase oil production in April. This was a response to disruptions in energy supplies caused by hostilities in Iran.
As a result of trading on February 27, which concluded shortly before the start of the US and Israeli operation against Iran, the price of Brent oil rose to a seven-month high—$73 per barrel. Against the backdrop of a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, experts do not rule out that the price could reach $100 per barrel.