The Russian army continues to intensify its offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the areas of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a report dated May 16 discusses several possible scenarios for the situation on the front, which remains one of the most tense areas of the Ukrainian Donbas.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Analysis of the Current Situation and Possible Development Scenarios
Existing data indicates that Russian forces are ramping up their offensive operations from the northeast of Pokrovsk and from the southwest of Toretsk. Despite this escalation, researchers note that the Russian command is unlikely to be able to conduct offensives in both directions simultaneously. The report emphasizes:
“Geolocated videos published on May 16 indicate that Russian forces have recently advanced in northern Myroliubivka (east of Pokrovsk) and captured Myroliubivka and Mykhailivka (west of Myroliubivka).”
Analysts point out that the intensification of Russian offensives in this direction occurred after Russian forces redirected their efforts towards Kostiantynivka and the southwest of Pokrovsk, particularly in the area of Novopavlivka, at the beginning of 2024. There are also reports of a possible redeployment of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Kurakhove direction to Malynivka, located east of Pokrovsk. This suggests a potential reassessment of the Russian military command’s priorities regarding the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the coming weeks and months.
Possible Prospects and Short-Term Scenarios
At the same time, according to ISW, there is an alternative scenario in which the Russian leadership may focus on advancing towards Kostiantynivka in the summer of 2025. The report notes that in February and March, Russian forces intensified efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian salient to the southwest of Toretsk, particularly by advancing towards Novooleksandrivka and near Zoria. This could force Ukrainian forces to retreat from limited positions in this direction.
Experts estimate that the Russian command currently lacks sufficient resources to conduct both large-scale offensives simultaneously – on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. The report emphasizes:
“Russia is unlikely to have enough manpower, materials, and operational planning capabilities to simultaneously encircle Pokrovsk and conduct a significant offensive operation towards Kostiantynivka in the coming months.”
It is also noted that Russian forces are still striving to break through from Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, complicating their plans for a broad offensive on Kostiantynivka. Meanwhile, experts predict that the Russian command may take a pause to stabilize the front before new active actions.
Overall, the intensification of Russian operations around Pokrovsk indicates that the Russian military leadership is assessing the possibility of weakening Ukrainian positions in the city and is eager to regain control over it. However, discussions are ongoing regarding the feasibility of such plans due to limited resources and short-term prospects.