The Kremlin is currently adjusting its information strategy aimed at preventing the transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States to Ukraine. This assessment was provided by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) following recent reports of the U.S. providing intelligence support to Ukraine for striking Russian energy facilities.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Kremlin’s Reaction and Changing Narratives
On October 12, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would inform Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin of intentions to provide Ukraine with Tomahawks if Moscow did not agree to negotiations to end the war. The following day, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, noted that Russia allegedly would not be able to distinguish between Tomahawk missiles with nuclear or conventional warheads in flight, and that the United States would control their launches. In his opinion, if such missiles were transferred to Ukraine, Russia would be forced to respond, and the supply of Tomahawks would not be beneficial to either side.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that American specialists would likely participate in Tomahawk strikes against Russian targets and reminded of the possible consequences of such actions. ISW analysts note that such statements from the Kremlin aim to influence Washington’s decisions and change the U.S. approach to arms supplies.
Significance of Intelligence Data and Information Campaigns
ISW points out that after the Financial Times published information about the U.S. providing intelligence data to Ukraine for strikes against Russia’s energy sector, the Kremlin began to change its information narratives. Some Russian officials did not comment on the FT article, likely because it contradicted the previously disseminated position regarding the threat of escalation in the event of U.S. involvement in potential Tomahawk strikes.
“Kremlin officials largely did not respond to the FT article, likely because this publication undermined the narrative that the Kremlin has repeatedly spread about U.S. involvement in potential Ukrainian strikes with ‘Tomahawks’ allegedly risking escalation and a Russian response,” ISW believes.
According to the newspaper, the provision of U.S. intelligence data to Ukraine began after a phone call between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in July. Since then, Ukraine has been receiving more detailed information, allowing for more accurate identification of Russian air defense positions and more effective planning of routes for strike drones.
Previously, ISW observed that the Kremlin has repeatedly resorted to “reflexive control” campaigns to prevent the transfer of modern weapons to Ukraine, including ATACMS systems, HIMARS, F-16 fighter jets, or Abrams tanks. At the same time, researchers emphasize that such information influences did not lead to escalation from the Russian Federation after the supply of this weaponry.