Leaders of five major European intelligence services express skepticism about the prospects of a peace agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation during 2026. They believe that the chances of a real cessation of hostilities remain minimal.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Negotiations and Kremlin Goals
According to European intelligence sources, the Kremlin is not interested in a swift end to hostilities. Four of the interviewees indicate that the Russian authorities are using negotiations with the United States as a tool for influence, attempting to achieve the easing of sanctions and the conclusion of favorable trade agreements. One source described the negotiations in Geneva as a “theatrical performance.”
“The Kremlin is trying to achieve its goals, which include, according to them, the removal of Volodymyr Zelensky from power and transforming Ukraine into a neutral ‘buffer zone’ between Russia and the West.”
Another intelligence representative emphasized that Russia is currently not on the brink of economic collapse, and negotiations are being used to achieve its own strategic objectives. According to him, Putin might agree to a partial transfer of territories, including parts of the Donetsk region, but the overthrow of the Ukrainian government remains an unattainable goal for the Kremlin.
Negotiation Strategy and Recent Developments
According to two experts, the Kremlin seeks to divide the negotiation process into two tracks: discussing the conditions for ending the war and concluding separate bilateral agreements between Russia and the United States, which would include lifting sanctions on Russia.
On February 18, the third round of trilateral negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States concluded in Geneva. The discussions lasted for two days, divided into political and military blocks. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, characterized the negotiations as complex but constructive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the parties had achieved convergence in the military sphere, but political issues remain unresolved.
The previous round of negotiations, which took place on February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, was recognized by the parties as constructive. Its outcome was a significant prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine.