According to estimates from the North Atlantic Alliance, a complete collapse of Ukraine’s defensive positions during 2026 appears unlikely, even despite limited reserves and a complicated front line. This was stated by a senior NATO official during a conversation with journalists in Brussels. His comments were made on the condition of anonymity.
This is reported by Kyiv24
Russian Losses and Assessment of the Situation on the Front
NATO notes that the losses of the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine have already reached 1.3 million people, with around 400,000 military personnel killed or wounded just in 2025. Currently, Russia controls nearly 70% of the territories of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, and throughout 2025, its troops advanced approximately 4,700 square kilometers. However, according to the Alliance representative, these gains cannot be considered strategic breakthroughs.
“Currently, Russia controls about 70% of the territories of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. In 2025, it advanced approximately 4,700 square kilometers. At the same time, Russia is actively creating an information backdrop to portray Ukraine’s defeat as inevitable, exaggerating the significance of capturing small villages. But these are not strategic breakthroughs,” noted the NATO official.
Likely Scenario for the Development of Events
In the coming months, the Alliance predicts a continuation of the war of attrition, in which Russia will maintain a tactical advantage through the mass use of drones, artillery, and attrition tactics. At the same time, the effectiveness of the enemy’s offensive is limited by the quality of troop training, logistical difficulties, and the constant adaptation of Ukrainian forces. This, according to NATO, prevents Russia from achieving a breakthrough on the front.
The Alliance official also noted that in the next year and a half, the Russian Federation is unlikely to capture those parts of Donbas that it demands, even without significant resistance. According to him, the Ukrainian defense is not on the brink of collapse that would allow the enemy to quickly achieve its goals, even in the perspective of 18 months.
As of February 2026, Russia is concentrating its main efforts on attempts to fully occupy the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, which could open a route to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the southwest. Additional offensive actions in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions are aimed at creating conditions for further struggles for these key cities. In particular, control over Kupiansk in Kharkiv could pose a threat to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north, while capturing Kostiantynivka could threaten from the south. However, as emphasized by NATO, Russia has not achieved strategic success in any of these directions.